Flight-to-quality or not? Evidence from China's green bond and green equity markets during COVID-19 crisis

This study investigates the time-varying interdependence relationships between green bonds and green equity returns in China before and during the COVID-19 period. The rolling-window Copula Quantile-on-Quantile regression method has been employed to capture the dynamic dependence structure of the asset returns. The empirical results are as follows: First, the green bond-green equity correlations have increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic era. Second, the heterogeneous dependencies across different quantiles show the time-varying information transmission mechanism between green financial markets depending on the market conditions. Specifically, the correlations have increased around median level given pandemic shocks and an opposite correlation movement can be found in extreme quantiles, supporting the ‘flight-to-quality' effect.

COVID-19 pandemic and stock market performance: A comparative study of emerging economies.

The paper investigates the co-movement of COVID-19 pandemic and performance of stock markets of four emerging economies. The Quantile-on-Quantile regression model was applied to daily share prices of stock markets from March 13, 2020 to November 30, 2021 in these economies. The results indicate varied relationships across various quantiles of COVID-19 cases and share prices. Whilst both positive and negative relationships are established at different quantiles of share prices for Brazil and Kenya, negative co-movements are recorded for India and South Africa for all quantiles of share prices. The varying dependence between COVID-19 and stock markets provide critical insights to policy makers.

How Does Health Uncertainty Impact Greenhouse Gas Emissions in European Union Economies? A Blessing in Disguise.

The global outbreak of COVID-19 caused serious threats to public health and economic growth all around the world, but on the other hand, the betterment of the environment took place. How pandemics' health uncertainty will affect environmental quality is a crucial matter to address. The paper investigates the asymmetric association between pandemics-related health uncertainty and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the top emitter European Union economies (Italy, Germany, France, Poland, Netherlands, Spain, Czech Republic, Belgium, Romania, and Greece). Employing data from 1996 to 2019, a unique approach called 'Quantile-on-Quantile', is adopted to evaluate the influence of various quantiles of the health uncertainty on GHG emissions. According to estimates, health uncertainty enhances environmental quality by minimizing GHG in most of our chosen nations at certain quantiles of data, which makes pandemics a blessing in disguise for environmental quality. Additionally, the estimations indicate that the grades of asymmetry between our variables varies by locality, accentuating the requisite for authorities to give specific consideration while executing health uncertainty and environmental quality policies.

Does US Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Index Predict G7 Stock Returns? Evidence Beyond Symmetry

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Baker et al. (2020) [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10, 742–758.] proposed the infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV) index, which tracks US equity market volatility caused by infectious diseases. We extended the literature by using this newly developed ID-EMV index to examine its asymmetric effect on the share market returns of the G7 countries, which include the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and the United States of America. Moreover, we used novel techniques like the quantile-on-quantile regression test, quantile cointegration test, and quantile unit root test. The quantile cointegration test indicates that the infectious disease EMV index is cointegrated with G7 stock returns. Moreover, the quantile-on-quantile regression technique reveals that the infectious disease index positively affects stock returns during bullish states of the stock markets. In contrast, it negatively affects stock returns during bearish states of the stock market returns. The negative effect of the bearish states implies that investors may discourage investments during the downturns of the economy, whereas they need to boost their investments during economic booms.

Impact of COVID-19 on China's business and economic conditions: the importance of quantile asymmetries.

China has remained a growth engine for the global economy for the last several years. In this study, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on China's business and economic conditions; employing the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression and the quantile causality approaches. These econometrics batteries suit our research postulation, as they are capable to delineate underlying asymmetries across the whole distribution, based on which we can infer whether the response of China's business and economic conditions towards COVID-19 is heterogenous or homogenous. Utilizing the novel business and economic conditions measures, we observed that COVID-19 had initially disrupted both business and economic conditions in China. However, they showcased recovery over time. Our in-depth analysis allowed us to infer that the effect of COVID-19 on China's business and economic conditions is heterogeneous across different quantiles, and there is reliable evidence of asymmetry. The outcomes of quantile causality in mean and variance corroborate our primary estimations. These findings educate policymakers, companies, and other stakeholders to understand the nuances of China's business and economic conditions vis-a-vis COVID-19 in the short-run and as time elapsed.

The role of the COVID-19 pandemic in US market volatility: Evidence from the VIX index.

We examine how the implied volatility in the US financial market has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We decompose the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) into two implied volatility conditions (i.e., low and high), and COVID-19 pandemic cases and deaths into two categories (i.e., low and high). Our novel quantile-on-quantile regression approach allows us to better examine the dynamic relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and implied volatility. Our empirical results show that increased death rates tend to increase fear in the US financial market. Specifically. we find that high COVID-19 cases have a significant impact on implied volatility under high uncertainty conditions, but low COVID-19 cases appear to have no impact on implied volatility in the US market. Our findings offer support to the US policy response by the Federal Reserve Board and the government to limit the instability effect of the COVID-19 shock on the financial markets.

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Pandemic Uncertainty on International Tourism: What do We Learn From COVID-19?

Uncertainty is an overarching aspect of life that is particularly pertinent to the present COVID-19 pandemic crisis; as seen by the pandemic's rapid worldwide spread, the nature and level of uncertainty have possibly increased due to the possible disconnects across national borders. The entire economy, especially the tourism industry, has been dramatically impacted by COVID-19. In the current study, we explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and pandemic uncertainty (PU) on inbound international tourism by using data gathered from Italy, Spain, and the United States for the years 1995-2021. Using the Quantile on Quantile (QQ) approach, the study confirms that EPU and PU negatively affected inbound tourism in all states. Wavelet-based Granger causality further reveals bi-directional causality running from EPU to inbound tourism and unidirectional causality from PU to inbound tourism in the long run. The overall findings show that COVID-19 has had a strong negative effect on tourism. So resilient skills are required to restore a sustainable tourism industry.

Can the green bond market enter a new era under the fluctuation of oil price?

This paper investigates how oil price (OP) influences the prospects of green bonds by utilising the quantile-onquantile (QQ) method and researching the interactions between OP and green bond index (GBI) from 2011:M1 to 2021:M11. We find that impacts from OP on the GBI are positive in the short run. The positive effects indicate that high OP can promote the development of the green bond market, indicating that green bonds can be considered an asset to avoid OP shocks. However, in the medium and long term, there is a negative impact due to the oversupply of the oil market and the increase in green energy industry profits. These results are identical to the supply and demand-based correlation model of green bonds and oil price, which underlines a specific effect of OP on GBI. The GBI effect on OP is consistently positive across all quantiles. It indicates that green bonds cannot be considered efficient measures to alleviate the oil crisis due to the instability of the Middle East COVID-19 and the small scale of green bonds. The issuers of green bonds can make decisions based on OP. Understanding the relationship between OP and GBI is also beneficial for investors. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Novel research methods on evaluating the nexus between environment and energy use: evaluating the role of tourism in the pre-COVID period

Since the fossil fuels are the principal energy sources across the globe, it is considered as the major reason for environmental degradation. Although, the fossil fuel consumption contributes to maintain industrial production, which is a key factor of economic growth, yet tourism is also among the key sources of revenue for China in the pre-Covid-19 pandemic. However, after the emergence of this novel pandemic, both fossil fuel consumption and tourism are severely affected that slowdowns China's economic progress and could have influence on environmental quality. This study investigates the impact of traditional fossil fuel, economic growth, and tourism on carbon emissions level in China over the period 1995–2020. Using time series estimating approaches, all the variables are found stationary at first difference. Due to irregular distribution of data, this study employed the novel Quantile-on-Quantile regression. The estimated results reveal that consumption of fossil fuel significantly enhances the level of carbon emissions in China. Whereas the impact of economic growth and tourism on carbon emission is mixed. The influence of both the variables is found positive in the lower and medium quantiles, while negative in the upper quantiles. This study also employed the pairwise Granger causality test, that validates two-way causal nexus between fossil fuel consumption—carbon emission and economic growth—carbon emissions. While one way causality from tourism to carbon emissions is evident in the empirical results. This study suggests lowering of fossil fuel consumption by using the alternative energy sources and increase tourism stringent environmental regulations for environmentally destructive tourism activities. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Asymmetric impact of investor sentiment and media coverage news on bitcoin returns

PurposeThis paper investigates the impact of global sentiment and various coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related media coverage news (Media-Hype index;Panic Index;Media Coverage Index, infodemic index and coronavirus statistics) on the dynamics of bitcoin returns during the COVID-19 pandemic using an asymmetric framework.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use an asymmetric framework based on quantile regression (QR) and quantile-on-quantile regression.FindingsQR results show that COVID-19 panic news negatively affects bitcoin market returns at times of extreme bearish. However, COVID-19 bullish sentiment negatively impacts bitcoin market returns during bullish market conditions. Quantile-on-quantile approach's (QQA) empirical results show that the effects of COVID-19-related news on bitcoin returns were heterogeneous, mainly negative and varied across quantiles.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors find some significant differences regarding the impact of news on bitcoin return dynamics compared to stock markets, suggesting the safe-haven role of bitcoin against stock during the ongoing epidemic.Practical implicationsThe authors find some significant differences regarding the impact of news on bitcoin return dynamics compared to stock markets, suggesting the safe-haven role of bitcoin against stock during the ongoing epidemic.Originality/valueThis study contributes to understanding the dynamics of bitcoin returns using various COVID-19 media news.

Impact of COVID-19 and economic policy uncertainty on China's stock market returns: evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches.

COVID-19 unexpectedly ensnared the entire world and wreaked havoc on global economic and financial systems. The stock market is sensitive to black swan events, and the COVID-19 disaster was no exception. Against this backdrop, this study explores the impact of COVID-19 and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on Chinese stock markets' returns for the period spanning January 23, 2020 to August 04, 2021. The outcomes of the novel quantile-on-quantile regression analysis revealed that both COVID-19 and EPU had a significant negative impact on both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market returns, while COVID-19 aggravated the level of economic uncertainty in both financial markets. The quantile causality approach of Troster et al. (2018) validates our main estimations. We conclude that COVID-19 and a high level of EPU enervated the returns of China's leading stock markets. Our study provides key insights to policymakers and market participants to determine the behavior of China's stock market returns vis-à-vis COVID-19 during the peak of the pandemic and beyond. Specifically, our findings apprise portfolio investors to augment their portfolio diversification fronts.

Analysis of the Frequency-Based Relationship between Inflation Expectations and Gold Returns in Turkey

This paper explores the relationship between inflation expectations and gold returns of monthly and annual maturities in Turkey from 2006 to 2020 with 177 monthly observations through the application of wavelet cohesion and causality tests. The findings reveal significantly negative cohesion in the short term and significantly positive cohesion in the long term, indicating that the hedging ability of gold prices exists only in the long term during crisis periods. Therefore, the findings provide evidence for the validity of the expected inflation effect hypothesis in Turkey. The ordinary least squares results, on the other hand, show that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the most prominent factor in the movement of inflation and gold at all wavelet scales for the two types of maturities. The continuous wavelet transformation based Granger-causality test provides little evidence for out-of-phase and unidirectional causality running from the inflation expectations to gold returns in the higher and medium frequency bands. Furthermore, the QQR results show an asymmetrical impact on each other-implying a hedging effectiveness of gold against inflation expectations-and reveal that its size and magnitude change significantly under different economic conditions and data frequencies. The results have significant implications for portfolio and risk management during normal market conditions as well as hedging and speculation activities during crises in short term and long term periods, respectively.

Does Us Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Index Predict G7 Stock Returns? Evidence Beyond Symmetry

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Baker et al. (2020) [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10, 742-758.] proposed the infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV) index, which tracks US equity market volatility caused by infectious diseases. We extended the literature by using this newly developed ID-EMV index to examine its asymmetric effect on the share market returns of the G7 countries, which include the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, and the United States of America. Moreover, we used novel techniques like the quantile-on-quantile regression test, quantile cointegration test, and quantile unit root test. The quantile cointegration test indicates that the infectious disease EMV index is cointegrated with G7 stock returns. Moreover, the quantile-on-quantile regression technique reveals that the infectious disease index positively affects stock returns during bullish states of the stock markets. In contrast, it negatively affects stock returns during bearish states of the stock market returns. The negative effect of the bearish states implies that investors may discourage investments during the downturns of the economy, whereas they need to boost their investments during economic booms.

The dynamic interaction between COVID-19 and shipping freight rates: a quantile on quantile analysis

This study determines the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that has been prevalent since the year 2019, on the shipping freights. This task has been undertaken by using the wavelet quantile on the quantile approach. The results of the study affirm that the pandemic has in fact affected the shipping freight costs, primarily due to the lower demand for energy and raw materials, and the unavailability of the vessels. In addition to this, the spread of COVID-19 has had a positive impact on the Baltic Dry Index in the high quantiles and is deemed to be more responsive in the long run. Also, the COVID-19 infection has had a negative effect on the Baltic Dry Tanker Index and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index in the medium to high quantiles, particularly in the short and the medium run. The positive impact of COVID-19 on the Baltic Clean Tanker Index has been recognized in the long term in the high quantiles. These findings support the theoretical model which states that the spread of COVID-19 and the shipping freights are closely related. The results suggest that the degree of the effect is more causal in the short. Therefore, the shipping industry must ideally pay special attention to the detection of abrupt changes in the freight rate dynamics, and the specific regulations regarding these intricacies are critical.

Do commodity assets hedge uncertainties? What we learn from the recent turbulence period?

This study analyses the impact of different uncertainties on commodity markets to assess commodity markets' hedging or safe-haven properties. Using time-varying dynamic conditional correlation and wavelet-based Quantile-on-Quantile regression models, our findings show that, both before and during the COVID-19 crisis, soybeans and clean energy stocks offer strong safe-haven opportunities against cryptocurrency price uncertainty and geopolitical risks (GPR). Soybean markets weakly hedge cryptocurrency policy uncertainty, US economic policy uncertainty, and crude oil volatility. In addition, GSCI commodity and crude oil also offer a weak safe-haven property against cryptocurrency uncertainties and GPR. Consistent with earlier studies, our findings indicate that safe-haven traits can alter across frequencies and quantiles. Our findings have significant implications for investors and regulators in hedging and making proper decisions, respectively, under diverse uncertain circumstances.

The relationship between green bonds and conventional financial markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and quantile coherence approaches

Financial markets evolve continuously and become increasingly complex with the steady stream of financial innovations, among which recent emergence of green bonds breathes life into and poses challenges on conventional financial markets. Relevant studies rarely consider market conditions and time frequencies, and fail to cover the 2020 market recession. We examine their relationships at various quantiles and frequencies with novel quantile-based approaches using daily data of five representative markets involving the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results reveal positive dependence of green bonds on fixed-income markets, indicating the diversifier role of green bonds, being most effective at the extreme lower quantiles of the treasury market and green bonds, which raises concern about their price transmission especially in recession. Hedging properties of green bonds for currency and stock markets are strongest in the medium term. In addition, we conduct the portfolio analysis, verifying hedging and diversification benefits of green bonds.

The impacts of El Niño-southern oscillation on renewable energy stock markets: Evidence from quantile perspective

Little attention has been paid to the effects of climate oscillations on the performance of renewable energy stock markets, although many studies have examined the instability of these markets caused by various external shocks. This paper aims to investigate the heterogenous impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on renewable energy stock markets under different market conditions using a quantile framework. Our results show that, firstly, ENSO has significant shocks on the EU renewable energy stock market in most market conditions, whereas it has no significant influence on the US market. Secondly, there is an obvious asymmetry in the responses of the EU renewable energy stock markets under bullish and bearish markets to ENSO, respectively. Thirdly, strong La Niña events appear to have larger impacts than those of strong El Niño on the EU renewable energy stock markets. Finally, the good performance of the EU renewable energy stock markets can be deteriorated by strong La Niña events during the COVID-19 crisis. These findings can not only help us to understand the heterogenous shocks of ENSO on different renewable energy markets, but also provide deeper insights on efficient managements of extreme climate risks to renewable energy stock markets.

The impact of cryptocurrencies on China's carbon price variation during COVID-19: A quantile perspective

We aim to document the impact of cryptocurrencies on China's carbon price variation using some quantile techniques during COVID-19 with the daily data spanning from August 7, 2015 to April 30, 2021. In this paper, we show that cryptocurrencies have a very strong explanation power for carbon market with the non-parametric causality-in-quantiles method. In addition, cryptocurrencies can work as a good hedging candidate for carbon market at different investment horizons with the quantile coherency approach. Using hedging effectiveness measure, we further show that COVID-19 can reverse the optimal hedging ratios in our portfolio specification in cryptocurrencies‑carbon emission trading pairs while this pandemic does not have effects on the trading effectiveness. Finally, the heterogeneity and asymmetry features in the dynamic quantile-on-quantile effects are detected and the effects on carbon efficient index show relatively strong fluctuation while on carbon emission trading market are relatively strong in magnitude. Our empirical results conclude with many potential applications for policymakers and investors.

The impact of COVID-19 on the US renewable and non-renewable energy consumption: a sectoral analysis based on quantile on quantile regression approach.

The repercussions of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic go well beyond health concerns, affecting virtually every aspect of our lives, including daily energy consumption. Therefore, this study explores the impact of COVID-19 on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in the USA, which has been severely affected by the recent pandemic. We conducted a detailed analysis of the energy consumption demands of various sectors in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Our in-depth analysis comprises two parts. Initially, we determine the monthly growth change by utilizing the month-on-month method. Subsequently, we used the quantile-on-quantile approach of Sim and Zhou (2015) on data spanning from December 2019 to August 2021 to explore the impact of COVID-19 on energy consumption across the whole distribution. The study's outcomes underscored that compared to renewable energy, non-renewable energy consumption was more affected by the COVID-19 lockdown, and the overall energy consumption (both renewable and non-renewable) remained low. These findings accentuate global strategic management tools to tackle COVID-19 cooperatively and restore the energy mix. Such measures are critical for energy access, security, and evenhandedness.

CAUSALITY BETWEEN TOURISM AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE QUANTILE-ON-QUANTILE ANALYSIS OF EIGHT CENTRAL PROVINCES IN CHINA

This paper aims to examine the relationship between tourism and economic growth in China's eight central provinces through the annual data from 1995 to 2019 using quantile-on-quantile approaches. Results show a positive relationship between tourism and economic growth for China's eight central provinces considered with substantial variations across provinces and quantiles within each province. The weakest relationship was noted for Shanxi, possibly because of the limited importance of the tourism sector relative to other major economic activities in this province. For Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan and Jilin, the most pronounced relationship between tourism activities and economic growth was observed only during the period of a deep economic upturn. The main reason for the economic downturn is that economic development during the periods of severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and coronavirus disease 2019 pandemics impacted tourist arrivals. Important provincial-specific policy implications may be drawn from these findings.